Saturday, March 5, 2016

The Donald


A Compassionate Bully?

“It is better to live one day as a lion than 100 years as a sheep” . . . Attributed to Benito Mussolini / Il Duce (the leader) in TIME magazine’s August 1943 issue   “tweeted” by Donald Trump –28 February 2016 . . .


“Hey, it got your attention, didn’t it?” was Mr. Trump’s reply when confronted by the American Press for “borrowing” one of Il Duce’s best-known quotes.

Perhaps Mr. Trump’s alleged Ivey League training failed to mention that Mussolini considered himself the “Duce of the Italian Social Republic” which was commonly known as a puppet state of Nazi Germany during the latter part of World War II (from 1943 until 1945).  

Technically the Italian Social Republic was the second and last manifestation of the Fascist Italian state led by, yep; you guessed it, Benito Mussolini and his reformed Republican Fascist Party.  Regardless by late April of 1945, Mussolini’s republic crashed and burned. At the point of its demise, the Italian Social Republic had existed for a little more than 19 months; the resulting damage can only be described as horrific to the Italian landscape; politically, economically, and socially.

Then again perhaps Mr. Trump subconsciously aspires to be like Mussolini — his abstract version of Gatorade’s “Be like Mike” commercial in 1992, or alternatively a little bit like Nazi Germany’s Adolf Hitler who in the beginning looked-up to Il Duce; in fact it’s common knowledge that Adolf was an admirer of Benito almost from the get-go. 

Others say the similarities end with the down-turned “smile” that was routinely displayed by Mussolini and has been perfected by Mr. Trump.  Is this facial expression merely coincidental or are the two actually long lost cousins separated by the vastness of an ocean and a single generation.

One outlandish story actually makes the clam that Il Duce and his mistress (Clara Petacci), mysteriously escaped their capture by Italian Partisans in late April of 1945, thus avoiding being shot by their captors. In the stead, the two somehow slipped away to the US where they changed their names to Il Donald and Melania and out of necessity followed separate paths.     

  
The story goes on to claim that in 2005 the two reunited by forming the perfect union of husband and wife.   Absent the two celebrities really being mythical Vampires, this story is a bit problematic, at best, to accept. 


Seriously, Mr. Trump nor his current wife are not likely to be Vampires, if for no other reason, in regard to the Donald anyway, because he has been described as a “star” high school athlete at the New York Military Academy by several of his former team mates, however no mention has ever been made suggesting that while a member of the varsity soccer, baseball, or football teams he displayed “superhuman” strength, a characteristic Vampires are known to possess.  Conversely some folks claim Melania is more likely to be an android. 


Regardless it’s only fair to mention that the Donald also won several awards while in high school, some for his athletic performance and the coveted “Neatness and Order Medal” in 1960—yet another strike against him being anything other than, at worse, an “anal–retentive” humanoid.   Then too, his image in the school’s yearbook displayed on the right is most damning to the vampire theory, as it unequivocally shows he has “aged” considerably over the years—and we all know the aging process for the typical Vampire is remarkably slow.

In any event it is perhaps unfortunate that Mr. Trump, as the heir apparent of the ongoing Republican Primary, in preparation of the 2016 General Presidential Election, harbors a major political flaw that will in all likelihood prove to be “fodder” for the likely Democratic Contender:

He remains an unfavorable candidate with the general electorate.  A recent Gallup poll (1/27/16) has Mr. Trump with a 60% un-favorability (1 point higher than the previous poll) rating while the likely Democratic Candidate, Ms. Clinton, has a 52% unfavorable rating; making her the Donald’s best and only beatable opponent in a General election. To put it another way, this means that Mr. Trump has a 40% rate of approval with American voters and Ms. Hillary has a 48% rate of approval among all the voters in America.  By the way, these poll results include all US voters — Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.   

So it boils down to this — Mr. Trump will not be able to attract voters from an electorate—60% of who view him unfavorably . . .

The fact is, the Donald has a higher un-favorability rating than any other likely candidate from either major political party since Gallup began tracking favorability back in 1992.  Who’s second in that despicable category?  Here’s your first clue: It’s a little bit ironic that the two least favored Presidential Candidates are considered the most likely to win their respective party’s primary nomination . . . and a second clue: The Democratic presidential hopeful is  of the female gender.

If you’re one of those American voters who think unfavorably ratings don’t matter, consider this “political exercise”: It is generally understood that there is a 30-40-30 makeup of America’s voters. That means 30% on the left will always vote Democratic, 30% on the right will always vote Republican; the middle group of “Independents” make-up the balance at 40%.

For the sake of simplicity in this let’s assume the 30% on the left comprises 30 votes; the 30% on the right totals 30 votes; and the middle group totals 100 votes making up 40% of the Independent electric — totaling 160 votes.

Now then, if Mr. Trump by some minor miracle wins all of the Republican votes, which will nearly be impossible, especially when considering the marathon of negative campaigning that has become commonplace in the 2016 Republican primary, he will have captured only that 30 percent on the right end of the spectrum or 30 votes. His next impossibility becomes pulling enough voters from the 40 percent in the middle who are Independent in order to snatch victory away from his Democratic opponent.    
Common sense dictates that he at best will seize 40% or 40 of the Independent votes as is reflected in his 40% favorability rating—totaling 70 votes for the Donald.

On the other hand if in fact he is lucky enough to have Ms. Hillary as his General election opponent, let’s assume she is blessed with the same premise: 30 votes from the left leaning Democratic spectrum, and 48 votes from the Independent field of voters; totaling 78 votes for Ms. Hillary.  

Should Mr. Trump not be so lucky and the Democrats ultimately “feel the Burn”— after all, Sen. Sanders is the most liked candidate in the entire 2016 field, including all the Republican Candidates. You see, Sanders has a 51% favorability rating with all US voters, which is the other really bad news for the Donald.

And then to add insult to injury, the Donald has other complications.  For example he has recently switched his party affiliation from Republican to Independent, to Democrat and back to Republican.  Fact is, Mr. Trump has switched political party affiliations at least five times since the late 1980’s . . . In the world of politics, come General Election time that happened yesterday.

Then there are all those “zingers” that often times attract the passionate, indecisive voter, who in the end will not help his presidential bid with the 60% who find him unfavorable. 

Here’s only three of dozens:

  • At the Fox News Republican presidential debate on Thursday evening, (March 3, 2016) the Donald re-emphasized his own vanity by suggested that he has a large penis.  Little wonder he was voted “Ladies Man” in his senior high school yearbook.
  • His criticism of John McCain’s views may be open season politically but questioning his valor in Vietnam is overboard and will cost votes in the General Election.
  • Finally, the Donald on waterboarding: “Torture works . . . Bluffton, S.C.—Wednesday, February 17, 2016.  Enough said.


But now-and-then some folks argue that he displays true signs of compassion: In 1999, he said on Meet the Press that he is very pro-choice when it comes to un-wanted pregnancies. On the Larry King Show, that same year, he said he was very liberal on healthcare and clearly supported universal health coverage.

The Donald must remind some post–World War II voters of Barry Goldwater’s 1964 run for the Whitehouse or to a lesser degree of Michael Dukakis, the 1988 Democratic Presidential hopeful or some might reminisce of George McGovern’s unsuccessful bid in 1972 who failed to win his home state of South Dakota and only captured 17 Electoral College votes.  

Sen. Goldwater, you may recall, was very opinionated, overbearing, and aggressive in his campaign speeches. He attracted a strong following of conservatives that were hungry for someone or anyone to champion their plight. The problem was, when he got past the primary and ran against Lyndon B. Johnson, he discovered he had alienated more than half of the American voters. The result was a landslide victory for LBJ who won 61% of the vote, compared to Goldwater’s 38%. Goldwater only pulled 5% from that 40% in the middle referenced above. 


Political history may not mean a lot to today’s younger voters but keep in mind that history often repeats itself and a repeat in this campaign means that the various flaws of the Donald will in all likelihood keep him from being the next US president.




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