Monday, April 13, 2015

Will A Growing Population Actually Save Man-kind?

The increase in the world’s population has often been a topic of heated debate and concern over the last fifty years or so, however the issue is perhaps even more of an urgent issue to address when considering other current hot topics such as climate change, immigration and the availability and distribution of the world’s resources.

A fortunate few live in HAPPY; it’s located in PERRY County Kentucky about 8
miles south of the local county seat, Hazard. The population was 534 in 2000 but by July of 2014 the population had sky-rocked to 850; considering that the “land area” of the community totals 3.3840 square miles, most folks here consider the latter number tolerable especially since it’s still a “Red Light Free” municipality. The anchor business establishments in Happy include the U S Post Office, an elementary school (RW Combs), an IGA grocery, and a NAPA Auto Parts Store.

Comparatively speaking, the 2014 population estimate for the Commonwealth of KY was 4,413,457 and the U S 2014 population was 318,857,056, living, breathing, eating folks; that’s 4.36% of the world’s population, which is believed to have exceeded 7 billion (7,000,000,000) in early 2015 and by 2050 the world’s population is expected to reach around 9 billion (9,000,000.000).   Before your heart seizes you ought to know there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon . . .  at least according to the latest United Nations projections, the world population will peak at just above 10 billion (10,000,000,000) persons in 2100.

In the mean-time you might have a look at the map depicted below:  
Now compare the top 10 most populist countries by population in 2015 (as opposed to 2014):
1.   China 1,400,205,222
2.   India 1,279,394,414
3.   United States 324,565,322
4.   Indonesia 255,126,788
5.   Brazil 203,342,836
6.   Pakistan 187,491,343
7.   Nigeria 182,422,544
8.   Bangladesh 160,019,436
9.   Russia 142,183,759
10. Japan 126,888,161


In this circumstance, less is probably better; trouble is; of the leading countries in this category, only Pakistan, Bangladesh,  Russia, and Japan managed to reduce their numbers during 2014.  Never-the-less, world population growth, world wide is now at a rate of around 1.14% per year.  Not that bad really, especially when you realize that the annual growth rate reached its peak in 1963, when it was at 2.19%.

At this time (2015) the annual growth rate is declining and is projected to continue to wane in the coming years. Currently, it is estimated that it will become less than 1% by 2020 and less than 0.5% by 2050.  Simply put, this means the world’s population will continue to grow in the 21st century, but at a slower pace compared to the past few years.

By 2030 India’s population is expected to top China’s, thus becoming the most populous country in the world.   Nigeria’s population is projected to surpass the U.S. population by 2045 to become the third-most populated country in the world and start to rival China by the end of the 21st century, with almost 1 billion people by 2100.

Sooo, why all the concern? . . . The simple fact is the resources of the earth are not boundless.  The earth is limited to what it can yield, and as yet we have no other place to go. We may marvel at our technology but we on occasion forget that the fundamentals on which we depend are the availability and distribution of fresh water (just ask anybody in California these days), fertility of the soil, access to sustainable energy supplies and resources, and let’s not forget a stable climate. Above all we depend on the stability of what we might consider the earth’s “natural” systems. For example the breathable atmosphere is less than 5 miles deep or you might ponder on the notion that a few reports have suggested that we have already lost 80% of the fish in the oceans.

The immediate issue is that the world’s increasing population is placing more strain on the Mother Earth’s resources than she can cope with. If everybody worldwide were to live even at the current living standard of the developed world, then we would be at a population beyond sustainability because there is an untold number of folks in the world today that simply do without many of the items you consider essential – you know little things like enough clean water to drink and an adequate food supply!

In the end, the natural order is likely to re-assert itself, as it has done on several occasions in the past with plagues and such. Some say Mother Earth will simply reduce the human population to a sustainable number when absolutely necessary. These folks say the only real question is will it be through conflict, starvation or disease.

There are many countries in the world which are trapped in a vicious cycle of deprivation. Here, the lack of affordable education and poor infrastructure leads to the absence of economic success; this in turn breeds the inability to afford needed education and the development of various infrastructures required to provide the “basics” for the masses. Then too, there is yet another factor to consider: Several societies still discourage or even prevent education for women; in fact, it is often a customary social policy.

It’s been proven over and over again that the initial population boom experienced by various developing or lesser technologically advanced nations such as those found in Asia, Africa, Oceania, and Latin America, often called Third World countries, do not continue on that path for more than one or two generations. This is primarily because as women are given access to birth control and education, the desired number of children dramatically declines. Men and women become more apt to delay having children until they complete their college education and begin a career. This action takes at least a decade off of their childbearing years.

Controlling the world’s population is always going to be challenging; because as birth rates drop the ageing population is constantly increasing, never-the-less it has to be tackled sometime, and it’s not going to get any easier.

On the other-hand . . . some folks claim population growth will force scientific advancement to help sustain the population level.  It is conceivable that, with enough incentive, we could learn to make abodes in other localities such as Earth’s outer limits of space, or its closest neighbors: The moon, maybe even Mars.

To put it short and “to the point”, as long as we’re on this planet without colonies established elsewhere, man-kind will continue to live on borrowed time. Without a doubt, the odds are in favor of some sort of natural disaster that will cause an extinction event which will be the end of every species on Earth. However if we’ve been pressed into moving “off-world”, man-kind just might survive.


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